GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇪🇸 La Liga · — · 19:00
versus

Valencia
Real Betis

Estadio de Mestalla
Pre-match analysis
57%
Both teams to score
VA45
Draw24
BE31
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,65Raw implied probability37,7%Sum of the 1X2 book106,1%Operator margin removed−6,1 ptsDe-margined consensus36%Our model44.8%Measured gap+8.8 pp
Markets carrying a signal5 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—69.5%58%+11.5
Home under 1.0 goals—30.5%42%−11.5
Draw or away—55.2%65%−9.8
Home over 1.5 goals—46.9%38%+8.9
Home under 1.5 goals—53.1%62%−8.9
Home win—44.8%36%+8.8
Home draw no bet—58.7%50%+8.7
Away draw no bet—41.3%50%−8.7
Home over 2.0 goals—28.5%20%+8.5
Home under 2.0 goals—71.5%80%−8.5
Home over 0.5 goals—79.4%72%+7.4
Home under 0.5 goals—20.6%28%−7.4

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

La Liga · 21:00
VALVAL
BETBET
Estadio de Mestalla · Pre-match analysis
57%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.632.65▲+0.02%
X3.253.27▲+0.02%
22.632.65▲+0.02%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 1.0 goals1Interesting84.5Home over 1.0 goals69.5%58%
61
▲+11.5pp
Home over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting76.7Home over 1.5 goals46.9%38%
61
▲+8.9pp
Home winInteresting76.4Home win44.8%36%
61
▲+8.8pp
Home draw no betInteresting76.1Home draw no bet58.7%50%
61
▲+8.7pp
Home over 2.0 goals2Interesting75.5Home over 2.0 goals28.5%20%
61
▲+8.5pp
Draw—Draw23.7%29%
61
▼-5.3pp
Away win—Away win31.5%36%
61
▼-4.5pp
Home or draw—Home or draw68.5%65%
61
▲+3.5pp
Home or away—Home or away76.3%71%
61
▲+5.3pp
Draw or away—Draw or away55.2%65%
61
▼-9.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 38%model 45%▲+7pp
Xmarket 31%model 24%▼-7pp
2market 38%model 31%▼-7pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.