GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🇪🇸 La Liga · — · 19:00
versus

Real Madrid
Real Sociedad

—
Pre-match analysis
77%
Victoire Real Madrid
RE77
Draw13
RS10
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,40Raw implied probability71,4%Sum of the 1X2 book105,8%Operator margin removed−5,8 ptsDe-margined consensus68%Our model76.7%Measured gap+8.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 72
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—72%54%+18
Home under 2.0 goals—28%46%−18
Over 3.0 goals—68%52%+16
Under 3.0 goals—32%48%−16
Home over 3.0 goals—42.4%27%+15.4
Home under 3.0 goals—57.6%73%−15.4
Home over 2.5 goals—55.3%41%+14.3
Home under 2.5 goals—44.7%59%−14.3
Under 4.0 goals—56.8%71%−14.2
Over 4.0 goals—43.1%29%+14.1
Over 3.5 goals—54.3%41%+13.3
Under 3.5 goals—45.7%59%−13.3

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

La Liga · 21:00
REAREA
RSORSO
— · Pre-match analysis
77%
Victoire RE

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.391.40▲+0.01%
X5.004.99▼-0.01%
27.007.00•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 2.0 goals2High Signal95Home over 2.0 goals72%54%
95
▲+18pp
Over 3.0 goals3High Signal95Over 3.0 goals68%52%
95
▲+16pp
Home over 3.0 goals3High Signal95Home over 3.0 goals42.4%27%
95
▲+15.4pp
Home over 2.5 goals2.5High Signal92.9Home over 2.5 goals55.3%41%
95
▲+14.3pp
Over 4.0 goals4High Signal92.3Over 4.0 goals43.1%29%
95
▲+14.1pp
Over 3.5 goals3.5High Signal89.9Over 3.5 goals54.3%41%
95
▲+13.3pp
Home over 1.5 goals1.5High Signal87.5Home over 1.5 goals78.5%66%
95
▲+12.5pp
Over 2.5 goals2.5High Signal87.2Over 2.5 goals74.4%62%
95
▲+12.4pp
Home win—Home win76.7%68%
95
▲+8.7pp
Draw—Draw13.3%19%
95
▼-5.7pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 71%model 77%▲+6pp
Xmarket 20%model 13%▼-7pp
2market 14%model 10%▼-4pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
72
Eligible
72
With a price
72
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.