GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇪🇸 La Liga · · 18:30
versus

Celta Vigo
Osasuna

Pre-match analysis
58%
Victoire Celta Vigo
CE58
Draw22
OS20
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,00Raw implied probability50,0%Sum of the 1X2 book106,3%Operator margin removed−6,3 ptsDe-margined consensus47%Our model58.1%Measured gap+11.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal5 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals36.7%25%+11.7
Home under 2.0 goals63.3%75%−11.7
Home over 1.0 goals76.5%65%+11.5
Home under 1.0 goals23.5%35%−11.5
Home win58.1%47%+11.1
Draw or away41.9%52%−10.1
Home over 1.5 goals53.7%44%+9.7
Home under 1.5 goals46.3%56%−9.7
Home draw no bet74.6%65%+9.6
Away draw no bet25.5%35%−9.5
Away clean sheet16.5%25%−8.5
Over 2.0 goals67.7%60%+7.7

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

CELCEL
OSAOSA
· Pre-match analysis
58%
Victoire CE

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.982.00+0.02%
X3.333.38+0.05%
23.893.75-0.14%

Model outputs by market

i
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 2.0 goals2Interesting85.1Home over 2.0 goals36.7%25%
78
+11.7pp
Home over 1.0 goals1Interesting84.5Home over 1.0 goals76.5%65%
78
+11.5pp
Home winInteresting83.3Home win58.1%47%
78
+11.1pp
Home over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting79.1Home over 1.5 goals53.7%44%
78
+9.7pp
Home draw no betInteresting78.8Home draw no bet74.6%65%
78
+9.6pp
DrawDraw22.1%28%
78
-5.9pp
Away winAway win19.9%25%
78
-5.1pp
Home or drawHome or draw80.1%76%
78
+4.1pp
Home or awayHome or away77.9%72%
78
+5.9pp
Draw or awayDraw or away41.9%52%
78
-10.1pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 50%model 58%+8pp
Xmarket 30%model 22%-8pp
2market 27%model 20%-7pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
62
Eligible
62
With a price
62
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.