Interesting🇺🇦 Premier League · — · 12:30
versus
Livyi Bereh
Karpaty
Arena Livyi Bereg
Pre-match analysis
74%
Under 2.5 goals
LI16
Draw32
KA52
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 14,84Raw implied probability20,7%Sum of the 1X2 book105,0%Operator margin removed−5,0 ptsDe-margined consensus20%Our model16%Measured gap−4 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 48
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 2.0 goals—36.2%60%−23.8
Under 2.0 goals—63.8%40%+23.8
Over 2.5 goals—26.3%46%−19.7
Under 2.5 goals—73.7%54%+19.7
Over 3.0 goals—12.5%32%−19.5
Under 3.0 goals—87.5%68%+19.5
Home over 1.0 goals—15.5%35%−19.5
Home under 1.0 goals—84.5%65%+19.5
Both teams to score—30.7%47%−16.3
Both teams to score: no—69.3%53%+16.3
Over 1.5 goals—53.7%70%−16.3
Under 1.5 goals—46.3%30%+16.3
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
