GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇷🇺 Premier League · — · 12:00
versus

Rodina Moskva
Baltika

Arena Khimki
Pre-match analysis
65%
Both teams to score: no
RO14
Draw26
BA60
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,40Raw implied probability29,4%Sum of the 1X2 book102,8%Operator margin removed−2,8 ptsDe-margined consensus29%Our model13.8%Measured gap−15.2 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 54
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—17.5%51%−33.5
Home under 1.0 goals—82.5%49%+33.5
Home over 0.5 goals—44.4%68%−23.6
Home under 0.5 goals—55.6%32%+23.6
Home over 1.5 goals—11.8%34%−22.2
Home under 1.5 goals—88.2%66%+22.2
Both teams to score—35.1%55%−19.9
Both teams to score: no—64.9%45%+19.9
Away win—60.5%44%+16.5
Home or draw—39.5%56%−16.5
Over 3.0 goals—20.6%37%−16.4
Under 3.0 goals—79.4%63%+16.4

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

russia-pl · 14:00
RODROD
BALBAL
Arena Khimki · Pre-match analysis
65%
Both teams to score: no

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
13.403.40•0%
X3.563.56•0%
22.212.21•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals82.5%49%
86
▲+33.5pp
Home under 0.5 goals0.5High Signal95Home under 0.5 goals55.6%32%
86
▲+23.6pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Home under 1.5 goals88.2%66%
86
▲+22.2pp
Both teams to score: noHigh Signal95Both teams to score: no64.9%45%
86
▲+19.9pp
Away winHigh Signal95Away win60.5%44%
86
▲+16.5pp
Under 3.0 goals3High Signal95Under 3.0 goals79.4%63%
86
▲+16.4pp
Under 2.0 goals2High Signal95Under 2.0 goals50.8%35%
86
▲+15.8pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal95Draw or away86.2%71%
86
▲+15.2pp
Home win—Home win13.8%29%
86
▼-15.2pp
Draw—Draw25.8%27%
86
▼-1.2pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 29%model 14%▼-15pp
Xmarket 28%model 26%▼-2pp
2market 45%model 60%▲+15pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
54
Eligible
54
With a price
54
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.