Interesting🇷🇺 Premier League · — · 17:00
versus
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
Lukoil Arena · Referee i-tanashev
Pre-match analysis
62%
Under 2.5 goals
SP24
Draw28
ZE48
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,80Raw implied probability35,7%Sum of the 1X2 book104,8%Operator margin removed−4,8 ptsDe-margined consensus34%Our model23.6%Measured gap−10.4 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 58
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—33.8%57%−23.2
Home under 1.0 goals—66.2%43%+23.2
Home over 1.5 goals—21.5%37%−15.5
Home under 1.5 goals—78.5%63%+15.5
Home draw no bet—32.9%48%−15.1
Away draw no bet—67.1%52%+15.1
Home over 0.5 goals—57.9%71%−13.1
Home under 0.5 goals—42.1%29%+13.1
Over 3.0 goals—23.2%36%−12.8
Under 3.0 goals—76.8%64%+12.8
Over 2.0 goals—52.7%65%−12.3
Under 2.0 goals—47.3%35%+12.3
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
