No signal🇷🇺 Premier League · — · 12:30
versus
Fakel
FC Orenburg
Fakel Stadium · Referee s-ivanov
0 – 0
Full time
84%
Under 2.5 goals
FA21
Draw38
FC41
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,53Raw implied probability39,5%Sum of the 1X2 book104,8%Operator margin removed−4,8 ptsDe-margined consensus—Our model21%Measured gap—
Markets carrying a signal8 / 49
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—14.4%56%−41.6
Home under 1.0 goals—85.6%44%+41.6
Over 2.0 goals—21.4%58%−36.6
Under 2.0 goals—78.6%42%+36.6
Home over 0.5 goals—41%70%−29
Home under 0.5 goals—59%30%+29
Over 1.5 goals—40.4%68%−27.6
Under 1.5 goals—59.6%32%+27.6
Over 2.5 goals—16.2%43%−26.8
Under 2.5 goals—83.8%57%+26.8
Both teams to score—23.8%50%−26.2
Both teams to score: no—76.2%50%+26.2
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
