No signal🇷🇺 Premier League · — · 15:00
versus
Akhmat
FC Rostov
Akhmat-Arena · Referee y-bobrovskiy
4 – 1
Full time
70%
Under 2.5 goals
AK41
Draw32
FC27
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,48Raw implied probability40,3%Sum of the 1X2 book105,0%Operator margin removed−5,0 ptsDe-margined consensus38%Our model40.8%Measured gap+2.8 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 56
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—31.7%49%−17.3
Away under 1.0 goals—68.2%51%+17.2
Over 2.0 goals—41.3%57%−15.7
Under 2.0 goals—58.7%43%+15.7
Over 3.0 goals—15.5%29%−13.5
Under 3.0 goals—84.5%71%+13.5
Over 2.5 goals—30%43%−13
Under 2.5 goals—70%57%+13
Both teams to score—37.6%49%−11.4
Both teams to score: no—62.4%51%+11.4
Away over 1.5 goals—20.2%31%−10.8
Away under 1.5 goals—79.8%69%+10.8
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
