Interesting🇨🇿 Czech Liga · — · 18:00
versus
Bohemians 1905
FK Jablonec
Dolicek · Referee v-zaoral
Pre-match analysis
60%
Under 2.5 goals
BO32
Draw31
FK37
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,53Raw implied probability39,5%Sum of the 1X2 book108,3%Operator margin removed−8,3 ptsDe-margined consensus36%Our model32%Measured gap−4 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 52
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 3.0 goals—24.8%38%−13.2
Under 3.0 goals—75.2%62%+13.2
Home over 1.0 goals—47%60%−13
Home under 1.0 goals—53%40%+13
Over 2.0 goals—55.4%66%−10.6
Under 2.0 goals—44.6%34%+10.6
Over 3.5 goals—19.8%30%−10.2
Under 3.5 goals—80.2%70%+10.2
Over 2.5 goals—40%50%−10
Under 2.5 goals—60%50%+10
Home over 1.5 goals—29.8%39%−9.2
Home under 1.5 goals—70.2%61%+9.2
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
