Watch🇧🇪 Jupiler Pro League · — · 18:45
versus
Antwerp
Genk
Bosuilstadion · Referee j-vergoote
2 – 4
Full time
58%
Under 2.5 goals
AN31
Draw30
GE39
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,25Raw implied probability30,8%Sum of the 1X2 book107,1%Operator margin removed−7,1 ptsDe-margined consensus29%Our model31.3%Measured gap+2.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—55.8%69%−13.2
Away under 1.0 goals—44.2%31%+13.2
Over 3.0 goals—27.1%40%−12.9
Under 3.0 goals—72.9%60%+12.9
Away over 2.0 goals—17.2%30%−12.8
Away under 2.0 goals—82.8%70%+12.8
Over 4.0 goals—10.5%21%−10.5
Under 4.0 goals—89.5%79%+10.5
Away over 1.5 goals—35.8%46%−10.2
Away under 1.5 goals—64.2%54%+10.2
Over 2.5 goals—42.3%52%−9.7
Under 2.5 goals—57.7%48%+9.7
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
