GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇧🇪 Jupiler Pro League · — · 16:15
versus

Charleroi
KV Mechelen

Stade du Pays de Charleroi · Referee j-boterberg
2 – 0
Full time
53%
Both teams to score
CH48
Draw27
KV25
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,72Raw implied probability58,1%Sum of the 1X2 book106,2%Operator margin removed−6,2 ptsDe-margined consensus55%Our model47.7%Measured gap−7.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal3 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—28%39%−11
Home under 2.0 goals—72%61%+11
Home over 2.5 goals—20.8%29%−8.2
Home under 2.5 goals—79.2%71%+8.2
Home over 1.0 goals—68.9%77%−8.1
Home under 1.0 goals—31.1%23%+8.1
Home over 1.5 goals—46.4%54%−7.6
Home under 1.5 goals—53.6%46%+7.6
Home over 3.0 goals—8.5%16%−7.5
Home under 3.0 goals—91.5%84%+7.5
Home win—47.7%55%−7.3
Draw or away—52.3%45%+7.3

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

jupiler · 18:15
CHACHA
KV KV
Stade du Pays de Charleroi
2 – 0
Full time

Final result

i
Refuted✕53%Both teams to score · announced before kick-off
48%
Win CHA
what happened
27%
Draw
25%
Win KV
48%at opening→48%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.721.72•0%
X3.803.80•0%
24.604.60•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting83Home under 2.0 goals72%61%
63
▲+11pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting74.6Home under 2.5 goals79.2%71%
63
▲+8.2pp
Home under 1.0 goals1Interesting74.3Home under 1.0 goals31.1%23%
63
▲+8.1pp
Home win—Home win47.7%55%
63
▼-7.3pp
Draw—Draw27.6%25%
63
▲+2.6pp
Away win—Away win24.7%20%
63
▲+4.7pp
Home or draw—Home or draw75.3%79%
63
▼-3.7pp
Home or away—Home or away72.4%76%
63
▼-3.6pp
Draw or away—Draw or away52.3%45%
63
▲+7.3pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet65.9%72%
63
▼-6.1pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 58%model 48%▼-10pp
Xmarket 26%model 27%▲+1pp
2market 22%model 25%▲+3pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.