GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · — · 13:00
versus

Sunderland
Fulham

Stadium of Light
Pre-match analysis
61%
Under 2.5 goals
SU38
Draw31
FU31
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,87Raw implied probability34,8%Sum of the 1X2 book104,9%Operator margin removed−4,9 ptsDe-margined consensus33%Our model37.9%Measured gap+4.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 54
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—45.2%60%−14.8
Away under 1.0 goals—54.8%40%+14.8
Away over 1.5 goals—28.6%41%−12.4
Away under 1.5 goals—71.4%59%+12.4
Away under 2.0 goals—88.7%78%+10.7
Away over 2.0 goals—11.4%22%−10.6
Over 3.0 goals—24%34%−10
Under 3.0 goals—76%66%+10
Home draw no bet—54.9%45%+9.9
Away draw no bet—45.1%55%−9.9
Over 3.5 goals—19.2%28%−8.8
Under 3.5 goals—80.8%72%+8.8

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Premier League · 15:00
SUNSUN
FULFUL
Stadium of Light · Pre-match analysis
61%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.872.87•0%
X3.403.40•0%
22.462.46•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal94.4Away under 1.0 goals54.8%40%
47
▲+14.8pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal87.2Away under 1.5 goals71.4%59%
47
▲+12.4pp
Away under 2.0 goals2Interesting82.1Away under 2.0 goals88.7%78%
47
▲+10.7pp
Under 3.0 goals3Interesting80Under 3.0 goals76%66%
47
▲+10pp
Home draw no betInteresting79.7Home draw no bet54.9%45%
47
▲+9.9pp
Under 3.5 goals3.5Interesting76.4Under 3.5 goals80.8%72%
47
▲+8.8pp
Under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting76.1Under 2.5 goals60.7%52%
47
▲+8.7pp
Under 2.0 goals2Interesting75.8Under 2.0 goals45.6%37%
47
▲+8.6pp
Home win—Home win37.9%33%
47
▲+4.9pp
Draw—Draw31%28%
47
▲+3pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 35%model 38%▲+3pp
Xmarket 29%model 31%▲+2pp
2market 41%model 31%▼-10pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
54
Eligible
54
With a price
54
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.