GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · — · 15:30
versus

Manchester United
Ipswich

Old Trafford
Pre-match analysis
76%
Victoire Manchester United
MU76
Draw16
IP8
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,42Raw implied probability70,4%Sum of the 1X2 book104,4%Operator margin removed−4,4 ptsDe-margined consensus67%Our model76.3%Measured gap+9.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 58
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—66.3%52%+14.3
Home under 2.0 goals—33.7%48%−14.3
Home over 2.5 goals—49.9%38%+11.9
Home under 2.5 goals—50.1%62%−11.9
Home over 3.0 goals—35.9%24%+11.9
Home under 3.0 goals—64.2%76%−11.8
Over 3.0 goals—58.5%48%+10.5
Under 3.0 goals—41.5%52%−10.5
Home over 1.5 goals—74.6%65%+9.6
Home under 1.5 goals—25.4%35%−9.6
Home win—76.3%67%+9.3
Draw or away—23.7%33%−9.3

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Premier League · 17:30
MUNMUN
IPSIPS
Old Trafford · Pre-match analysis
76%
Victoire MU

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.421.42•0%
X4.804.80•0%
27.607.60•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 2.0 goals2High Signal92.9Home over 2.0 goals66.3%52%
95
▲+14.3pp
Home over 2.5 goals2.5Interesting85.7Home over 2.5 goals49.9%38%
95
▲+11.9pp
Home over 3.0 goals3Interesting85.7Home over 3.0 goals35.9%24%
95
▲+11.9pp
Over 3.0 goals3Interesting81.5Over 3.0 goals58.5%48%
95
▲+10.5pp
Home over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting78.8Home over 1.5 goals74.6%65%
95
▲+9.6pp
Home winInteresting77.9Home win76.3%67%
95
▲+9.3pp
Home over 3.5 goals3.5Interesting77Home over 3.5 goals28%19%
95
▲+9pp
Over 2.0 goals2Interesting75.8Over 2.0 goals83.6%75%
95
▲+8.6pp
Draw—Draw15.5%20%
95
▼-4.5pp
Away win—Away win8.2%13%
95
▼-4.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 70%model 76%▲+6pp
Xmarket 21%model 16%▼-5pp
2market 13%model 8%▼-5pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
58
Eligible
58
With a price
58
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.