GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · — · 11:30
versus

Liverpool
Nottingham Forest

Anfield
Pre-match analysis
60%
Over 2.5 goals
LI56
Draw23
NO21
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,45Raw implied probability69,0%Sum of the 1X2 book105,7%Operator margin removed−5,7 ptsDe-margined consensus65%Our model56.1%Measured gap−8.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal3 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—49.3%39%+10.3
Away under 1.0 goals—50.7%61%−10.3
Home win—56.1%65%−8.9
Draw or away—43.9%35%+8.9
Home over 2.0 goals—43.5%52%−8.5
Home under 2.0 goals—56.5%48%+8.5
Home draw no bet—73.2%81%−7.8
Away draw no bet—26.8%19%+7.8
Away over 0.5 goals—67.8%60%+7.8
Away under 0.5 goals—32.2%40%−7.8
Home over 3.0 goals—16.9%24%−7.1
Home under 3.0 goals—83.1%76%+7.1

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Premier League · 13:30
LIVLIV
NOTNOT
Anfield · Pre-match analysis
60%
Over 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.451.45•0%
X4.604.60•0%
26.656.65•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away over 1.0 goals1Interesting80.9Away over 1.0 goals49.3%39%
75
▲+10.3pp
Draw or awayInteresting76.7Draw or away43.9%35%
75
▲+8.9pp
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting75.5Home under 2.0 goals56.5%48%
75
▲+8.5pp
Home win—Home win56.1%65%
75
▼-8.9pp
Draw—Draw23.4%21%
75
▲+2.4pp
Away win—Away win20.5%14%
75
▲+6.5pp
Home or draw—Home or draw79.5%85%
75
▼-5.5pp
Home or away—Home or away76.6%80%
75
▼-3.4pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet73.2%81%
75
▼-7.8pp
Away draw no bet—Away draw no bet26.8%19%
75
▲+7.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 69%model 56%▼-13pp
Xmarket 22%model 23%▲+1pp
2market 15%model 21%▲+6pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.