No signal🏴 Premier League · — · 19:00
versus
Crystal Palace
Manchester City
Selhurst Park
Pre-match analysis
57%
Victoire Manchester City
CR18
Draw25
MC57
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 15,45Raw implied probability18,3%Sum of the 1X2 book103,6%Operator margin removed−3,6 ptsDe-margined consensus18%Our model17.9%Measured gap−0.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal4 / 60
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Under 3.0 goals—63.3%54%+9.3
Over 3.0 goals—36.8%46%−9.2
Over 4.0 goals—16.2%25%−8.8
Under 4.0 goals—83.8%75%+8.8
Away over 2.0 goals—36.5%45%−8.5
Away under 2.0 goals—63.5%55%+8.5
Over 3.5 goals—28.7%37%−8.3
Under 3.5 goals—71.3%63%+8.3
Over 2.5 goals—50.7%58%−7.3
Under 2.5 goals—49.3%42%+7.3
Over 5.0 goals—6.2%13%−6.8
Under 5.0 goals—93.8%87%+6.8
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
