GRABBLESTATS
No signal🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · — · 14:00
versus

Bournemouth
Everton

Vitality Stadium
Pre-match analysis
55%
Under 2.5 goals
BO45
Draw29
EV26
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,80Raw implied probability55,6%Sum of the 1X2 book104,0%Operator margin removed−4,0 ptsDe-margined consensus53%Our model44.9%Measured gap−8.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal6 / 36
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.5 goals—42%55%−13
Home under 1.5 goals—58%45%+13
Over 2.5 goals—45.1%56%−10.9
Under 2.5 goals—54.9%44%+10.9
Home over 2.5 goals—17.5%28%−10.5
Home under 2.5 goals—82.5%72%+10.5
Over 3.5 goals—23.8%34%−10.2
Under 3.5 goals—76.2%66%+10.2
Draw or away—55.1%46%+9.1
Home win—44.9%53%−8.1
Home draw no bet—63%71%−8
Away draw no bet—37%29%+8

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Premier League · 16:00
BOUBOU
EVEEVE
Vitality Stadium · Pre-match analysis
55%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.851.80▼-0.05%
X3.903.96▲+0.06%
24.204.31▲+0.11%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal89Home under 1.5 goals58%45%
59
▲+13pp
Under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting82.7Under 2.5 goals54.9%44%
59
▲+10.9pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting81.5Home under 2.5 goals82.5%72%
59
▲+10.5pp
Under 3.5 goals3.5Interesting80.6Under 3.5 goals76.2%66%
59
▲+10.2pp
Draw or awayInteresting77.3Draw or away55.1%46%
59
▲+9.1pp
Away draw no betInteresting74Away draw no bet37%29%
59
▲+8pp
Home win—Home win44.9%53%
59
▼-8.1pp
Draw—Draw28.7%24%
59
▲+4.7pp
Away win—Away win26.4%22%
59
▲+4.4pp
Home or draw—Home or draw73.6%78%
59
▼-4.4pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 56%model 45%▼-11pp
Xmarket 25%model 29%▲+4pp
2market 23%model 26%▲+3pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
36
Eligible
36
With a price
36
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.