GRABBLESTATS
Watch🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · — · 19:00
versus

Fulham
Chelsea

Craven Cottage · Referee j-brooks
Pre-match analysis
56%
Both teams to score
FU36
Draw28
CH36
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,80Raw implied probability26,3%Sum of the 1X2 book105,4%Operator margin removed−5,4 ptsDe-margined consensus25%Our model35.7%Measured gap+10.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 2.0 goals—20.9%38%−17.1
Away under 2.0 goals—79%62%+17
Away draw no bet—50.4%66%−15.6
Home draw no bet—49.4%34%+15.4
Away over 1.0 goals—61%76%−15
Away under 1.0 goals—39%24%+15
Away win—36.4%51%−14.6
Home or draw—63.6%49%+14.6
Away over 1.5 goals—39.8%54%−14.2
Away under 1.5 goals—60.2%46%+14.2
Away over 2.5 goals—15.9%28%−12.1
Away under 2.5 goals—84.1%72%+12.1

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Premier League · 21:00
FULFUL
CHECHE
Craven Cottage · Pre-match analysis
56%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
13.703.80▲+0.1%
X3.703.90▲+0.2%
21.911.87▼-0.04%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 2.0 goals2High Signal95Away under 2.0 goals79%62%
48
▲+17pp
Home draw no betHigh Signal95Home draw no bet49.4%34%
48
▲+15.4pp
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away under 1.0 goals39%24%
48
▲+15pp
Home or drawHigh Signal93.8Home or draw63.6%49%
48
▲+14.6pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal92.6Away under 1.5 goals60.2%46%
48
▲+14.2pp
Away under 2.5 goals2.5High Signal86.3Away under 2.5 goals84.1%72%
48
▲+12.1pp
Home winInteresting82.1Home win35.7%25%
48
▲+10.7pp
Under 3.0 goals3Interesting78.8Under 3.0 goals62.6%53%
48
▲+9.6pp
Draw—Draw27.8%24%
48
▲+3.8pp
Away win—Away win36.4%51%
48
▼-14.6pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 26%model 36%▲+10pp
Xmarket 26%model 28%▲+2pp
2market 53%model 36%▼-17pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.