GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · — · 15:30
versus

Newcastle
Liverpool

— · Referee s-attwell
Pre-match analysis
67%
Both teams to score
NE36
Draw25
LI39
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,86Raw implied probability25,9%Sum of the 1X2 book104,2%Operator margin removed−4,2 ptsDe-margined consensus25%Our model36.4%Measured gap+11.4 pp
Markets carrying a signal7 / 72
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home draw no bet—48.3%34%+14.3
Away draw no bet—51.7%66%−14.3
Away win—39%51%−12
Home over 1.0 goals—71.6%60%+11.6
Home under 1.0 goals—28.4%40%−11.6
Home win—36.4%25%+11.4
Home or draw—61%50%+11
Away over 2.0 goals—33%44%−11
Away under 2.0 goals—66.8%56%+10.8
Draw or away—63.6%74%−10.4
Home over 2.0 goals—30.7%21%+9.7
Home under 2.0 goals—69.3%79%−9.7

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Premier League · 17:30
NEWNEW
LIVLIV
— · Pre-match analysis
67%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
13.703.86▲+0.16%
X3.803.90▲+0.1%
21.921.90▼-0.02%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home draw no betHigh Signal92.9Home draw no bet48.3%34%
54
▲+14.3pp
Home over 1.0 goals1Interesting84.8Home over 1.0 goals71.6%60%
54
▲+11.6pp
Home winInteresting84.2Home win36.4%25%
54
▲+11.4pp
Home or drawInteresting83Home or draw61%50%
54
▲+11pp
Away under 2.0 goals2Interesting82.4Away under 2.0 goals66.8%56%
54
▲+10.8pp
Home over 2.0 goals2Interesting79.1Home over 2.0 goals30.7%21%
54
▲+9.7pp
Home over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting76.4Home over 1.5 goals48.8%40%
54
▲+8.8pp
Draw—Draw24.6%25%
54
▼-0.4pp
Away win—Away win39%51%
54
▼-12pp
Home or away—Home or away75.4%76%
54
▼-0.6pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 26%model 36%▲+10pp
Xmarket 26%model 25%▼-1pp
2market 53%model 39%▼-14pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
72
Eligible
72
With a price
72
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.