Interesting🏴 Premier League · — · 13:00
versus
Manchester City
Bournemouth
Etihad Stadium · Referee j-gillett
Pre-match analysis
65%
Victoire Manchester City
MC65
Draw21
BO14
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,50Raw implied probability66,7%Sum of the 1X2 book104,2%Operator margin removed−4,2 ptsDe-margined consensus64%Our model65.1%Measured gap+1.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal3 / 72
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—37.1%49%−11.9
Away under 1.0 goals—62.9%51%+11.9
Over 4.0 goals—24.3%34%−9.7
Under 4.0 goals—75.7%66%+9.7
Under 3.0 goals—51.9%43%+8.9
Over 3.0 goals—48.2%57%−8.8
Over 4.5 goals—20.1%28%−7.9
Under 4.5 goals—79.9%72%+7.9
Over 3.5 goals—37.4%45%−7.6
Under 3.5 goals—62.6%55%+7.6
Over 5.0 goals—10.5%18%−7.5
Under 5.0 goals—89.5%82%+7.5
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
