GRABBLESTATS
No signal🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · — · 14:00
versus

Ipswich
Sunderland

Portman Road Stadium · Referee f-hallam
2 – 1
Full time
54%
Under 2.5 goals
IP20
Draw27
SU53
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,80Raw implied probability35,7%Sum of the 1X2 book104,7%Operator margin removed−4,7 ptsDe-margined consensus34%Our model20.3%Measured gap−13.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home draw no bet—27.8%49%−21.2
Away draw no bet—72.2%51%+21.2
Home over 1.0 goals—36.3%53%−16.7
Home under 1.0 goals—63.7%47%+16.7
Away win—52.6%36%+16.6
Home or draw—47.4%64%−16.6
Away over 1.0 goals—70.2%55%+15.2
Away under 1.0 goals—29.8%45%−15.2
Draw or away—79.7%65%+14.7
Home win—20.3%34%−13.7
Home over 1.5 goals—23%35%−12
Home under 1.5 goals—77%65%+12

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Premier League · 16:00
IPSIPS
SUNSUN
Portman Road Stadium
2 – 1
Full time

Final result

i
Refuted✕54%Under 2.5 goals · announced before kick-off
20%
Win IPS
what happened
27%
Draw
53%
Win SUN
22%at opening→20%at kick-off+2 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.732.80▲+0.07%
X3.303.20▼-0.1%
22.652.65•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet72.2%51%
73
▲+21.2pp
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals63.7%47%
73
▲+16.7pp
Away winHigh Signal95Away win52.6%36%
73
▲+16.6pp
Away over 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away over 1.0 goals70.2%55%
73
▲+15.2pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal94.1Draw or away79.7%65%
73
▲+14.7pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal86Home under 1.5 goals77%65%
73
▲+12pp
Away over 1.5 goals1.5Interesting84.5Away over 1.5 goals47.5%36%
73
▲+11.5pp
Away clean sheetInteresting84.2Away clean sheet40.4%29%
73
▲+11.4pp
Home win—Home win20.3%34%
73
▼-13.7pp
Draw—Draw27.1%30%
73
▼-2.9pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 36%model 20%▼-16pp
Xmarket 31%model 27%▼-4pp
2market 38%model 53%▲+15pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
64
Eligible
64
With a price
64
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.