No signal🏴 Premier League · — · 14:00
versus
Everton
Crystal Palace
Hill Dickinson Stadium · Referee p-tierney
2 – 0
Full time
62%
Under 2.5 goals
EV40
Draw31
CR29
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,25Raw implied probability44,4%Sum of the 1X2 book104,6%Operator margin removed−4,6 ptsDe-margined consensus42%Our model40.3%Measured gap−1.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 3.0 goals—23.2%36%−12.8
Under 3.0 goals—76.8%64%+12.8
Home under 1.0 goals—45.8%34%+11.8
Over 2.0 goals—53.3%65%−11.7
Under 2.0 goals—46.7%35%+11.7
Home over 1.0 goals—54.4%66%−11.6
Over 2.5 goals—38.4%49%−10.6
Under 2.5 goals—61.6%51%+10.6
Away under 1.0 goals—58.5%48%+10.5
Over 3.5 goals—18.6%29%−10.4
Under 3.5 goals—81.4%71%+10.4
Away over 1.0 goals—41.6%52%−10.4
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
