GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿 Premiership · — · 14:00
versus

ST Mirren
Motherwell

The SMISA Stadium
Pre-match analysis
65%
Under 2.5 goals
ST22
Draw30
MO48
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,60Raw implied probability38,5%Sum of the 1X2 book106,1%Operator margin removed−6,1 ptsDe-margined consensus36%Our model21.7%Measured gap−14.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 56
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—28.8%60%−31.2
Home under 1.0 goals—71.2%40%+31.2
Home over 1.5 goals—18.5%39%−20.5
Home under 1.5 goals—81.5%61%+20.5
Away draw no bet—69.2%52%+17.2
Home draw no bet—30.9%48%−17.1
Home over 0.5 goals—54.3%71%−16.7
Home under 0.5 goals—45.7%29%+16.7
Over 2.0 goals—48.2%64%−15.8
Under 2.0 goals—51.8%36%+15.8
Under 3.0 goals—80.3%65%+15.3
Over 3.0 goals—19.9%35%−15.1

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

scot-prem · 16:00
ST ST
MOTMOT
The SMISA Stadium · Pre-match analysis
65%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.602.60•0%
X3.203.20•0%
22.752.75•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals71.2%40%
66
▲+31.2pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Home under 1.5 goals81.5%61%
66
▲+20.5pp
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet69.2%52%
66
▲+17.2pp
Home under 0.5 goals0.5High Signal95Home under 0.5 goals45.7%29%
66
▲+16.7pp
Under 2.0 goals2High Signal95Under 2.0 goals51.8%36%
66
▲+15.8pp
Under 3.0 goals3High Signal95Under 3.0 goals80.3%65%
66
▲+15.3pp
Away winHigh Signal93.8Away win48.6%34%
66
▲+14.6pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal92.9Draw or away78.3%64%
66
▲+14.3pp
Home win—Home win21.7%36%
66
▼-14.3pp
Draw—Draw29.8%29%
66
▲+0.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 38%model 22%▼-16pp
Xmarket 31%model 30%▼-1pp
2market 36%model 48%▲+12pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
56
Eligible
56
With a price
56
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.