GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · — · 18:45
versus

Estac Troyes
Paris FC

— · Referee m-bollengier
0 – 0
Full time
68%
Victoire Paris FC
TR11
Draw21
PA68
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,20Raw implied probability31,3%Sum of the 1X2 book105,4%Operator margin removed−5,4 ptsDe-margined consensus30%Our model11.4%Measured gap−18.6 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home draw no bet—14.4%42%−27.6
Away draw no bet—85.6%58%+27.6
Home or draw—32%58%−26
Away win—68%43%+25
Home over 1.0 goals—32.5%57%−24.5
Home under 1.0 goals—67.5%43%+24.5
Away over 2.0 goals—53.3%30%+23.3
Away under 2.0 goals—46.7%70%−23.3
Draw or away—88.6%69%+19.6
Home win—11.4%30%−18.6
Away over 1.5 goals—65.8%48%+17.8
Away under 1.5 goals—34.2%52%−17.8

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Ligue 1 · 20:45
TROTRO
PARPAR
—
0 – 0
Full time

Final result

i
Refuted✕68%Paris FC win · announced before kick-off
11%
Win TRO
21%
Draw
what happened
68%
Win PAR
25%at opening→11%at kick-off+16 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
13.003.20▲+0.2%
X3.503.48▼-0.02%
22.302.20▼-0.1%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet85.6%58%
95
▲+27.6pp
Away winHigh Signal95Away win68%43%
95
▲+25pp
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals67.5%43%
95
▲+24.5pp
Away over 2.0 goals2High Signal95Away over 2.0 goals53.3%30%
95
▲+23.3pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal95Draw or away88.6%69%
95
▲+19.6pp
Away over 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Away over 1.5 goals65.8%48%
95
▲+17.8pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Home under 1.5 goals79.3%62%
95
▲+17.3pp
Away over 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away over 1.0 goals86.2%70%
95
▲+16.2pp
Home win—Home win11.4%30%
95
▼-18.6pp
Draw—Draw20.6%27%
95
▼-6.4pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 31%model 11%▼-20pp
Xmarket 29%model 21%▼-8pp
2market 45%model 68%▲+23pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
64
Eligible
64
With a price
64
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.