Interesting🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · — · 18:45
versus
Toulouse
Lyon
Stadium de Toulouse · Referee g-paradis
0 – 2
Full time
62%
Both teams to score
TO35
Draw28
LY37
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,41Raw implied probability41,5%Sum of the 1X2 book105,6%Operator margin removed−5,6 ptsDe-margined consensus39%Our model35.3%Measured gap−3.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal2 / 68
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—67%57%+10
Away under 1.0 goals—33%43%−10
Over 2.0 goals—75.6%67%+8.6
Under 2.0 goals—24.4%33%−8.6
Away under 1.5 goals—55.3%63%−7.7
Over 1.5 goals—81.5%74%+7.5
Under 1.5 goals—18.5%26%−7.5
Over 3.0 goals—45.1%38%+7.1
Under 3.0 goals—54.9%62%−7.1
Away over 2.0 goals—26.1%19%+7.1
Away under 2.0 goals—73.9%81%−7.1
Away over 0.5 goals—78%71%+7
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
