GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · — · 18:45
versus

Nice
Lorient

Allianz Riviera · Referee r-lissorgue
0 – 0
Full time
53%
Under 2.5 goals
NI25
Draw29
LO46
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,13Raw implied probability46,9%Sum of the 1X2 book105,8%Operator margin removed−5,8 ptsDe-margined consensus44%Our model24.9%Measured gap−19.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home draw no bet—35.3%61%−25.7
Away draw no bet—64.7%39%+25.7
Home over 1.0 goals—44.9%67%−22.1
Home under 1.0 goals—55.1%33%+22.1
Draw or away—75.1%55%+20.1
Home win—24.9%44%−19.1
Away win—45.7%28%+17.7
Home or draw—54.3%72%−17.7
Home over 1.5 goals—28.4%46%−17.6
Home under 1.5 goals—71.6%54%+17.6
Home over 2.0 goals—11.2%27%−15.8
Home under 2.0 goals—88.7%73%+15.7

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Ligue 1 · 20:45
NICNIC
LORLOR
Allianz Riviera
0 – 0
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed✓53%Under 2.5 goals · announced before kick-off
25%
Win NIC
29%
Draw
what happened
46%
Win LOR
51%at opening→25%at kick-off+23 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.122.13▲+0.01%
X3.503.45▼-0.05%
23.383.35▼-0.03%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet64.7%39%
61
▲+25.7pp
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals55.1%33%
61
▲+22.1pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal95Draw or away75.1%55%
61
▲+20.1pp
Away winHigh Signal95Away win45.7%28%
61
▲+17.7pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Home under 1.5 goals71.6%54%
61
▲+17.6pp
Home under 2.0 goals2High Signal95Home under 2.0 goals88.7%73%
61
▲+15.7pp
Away over 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away over 1.0 goals66.5%51%
61
▲+15.5pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5High Signal86Home under 2.5 goals91%79%
61
▲+12pp
Home win—Home win24.9%44%
61
▼-19.1pp
Draw—Draw29.4%27%
61
▲+2.4pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 47%model 25%▼-22pp
Xmarket 29%model 29%•0pp
2market 30%model 46%▲+16pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.