GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · · 18:45
versus

Nice
Lorient

Allianz Riviera · Referee r-lissorgue
00
Full time
53%
Under 2.5 goals
NI25
Draw29
LO46
Why

No supporting factor is published for this fixture. A factor is a measured weight, and the engine publishes none until it holds enough history on both sides — an empty column is a gap in the record, not a conclusion about the fixture.

What could fool us
Nice's defence sits at the 14th percentile — among the weakest
Nice has 8 declared absences
4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
Lorient takes 2.05 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Lorient at 46%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

NICNIC
LORLOR
Allianz Riviera
00
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed53%Under 2.5 goals · announced before kick-off
25%
Win NIC
29%
Draw
what happened
46%
Win LOR
51%at opening25%at kick-off+23 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Why

    What could mislead us

    • Nice's defence sits at the 14th percentile — among the weakest
    • Nice has 8 declared absences
    • 4 draws in the last 8 meetings — a historically tight fixture
    • Lorient takes 2.05 points per game at home against 1 away — two different sides depending on the ground
    • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

    Key signals

    i

    Leading market

    High Signal
    Away draw no betStrength 95/100
    Away draw no bet
    Model
    64.7%
    Market
    39%
    Divergence
    +25.7

    Why this level

    • The model prices this at 64.7%, the market at 39%.

    What holds it back

    • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

    8 markets carry a signalthe rest are ranked in the Market Explorer.

    Context snapshot

    Referee
    r-lissorgue
    Pitch
    Rest advantage
    Fatigue —
    Travel

    Standings

    iRound 21
    #TeamPGDFormPts

    AI Reasoning

    iExplanation layer

    The model prices Lorient at 46%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

    Limits & assumptions