GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · — · 15:15
versus

Lens
Auxerre

Stade Bollaert-Delelis · Referee m-vernice
5 – 2
Full time
55%
Victoire Lens
LE55
Draw26
AU19
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,52Raw implied probability65,8%Sum of the 1X2 book105,5%Operator margin removed−5,5 ptsDe-margined consensus62%Our model55.3%Measured gap−6.7 pp
Markets carrying a signal1 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—37.2%47%−9.8
Home under 2.0 goals—62.8%53%+9.8
Home over 2.5 goals—27.2%35%−7.8
Home under 2.5 goals—72.8%65%+7.8
Home over 1.5 goals—54%61%−7
Home under 1.5 goals—46%39%+7
Home over 3.0 goals—13.1%20%−6.9
Home under 3.0 goals—86.9%80%+6.9
Home win—55.3%62%−6.7
Over 3.0 goals—39.3%46%−6.7
Under 3.0 goals—60.7%54%+6.7
Over 4.0 goals—17.9%24%−6.1

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Ligue 1 · 17:15
LENLEN
AUXAUX
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
5 – 2
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed✓55%Lens win · announced before kick-off
55%
Win LEN
what happened
26%
Draw
19%
Win AUX
62%at opening→55%at kick-off−7 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.581.52▼-0.06%
X4.304.34▲+0.04%
25.286.00▲+0.72%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting79.4Home under 2.0 goals62.8%53%
76
▲+9.8pp
Home win—Home win55.3%62%
76
▼-6.7pp
Draw—Draw26%22%
76
▲+4pp
Away win—Away win18.7%16%
76
▲+2.7pp
Home or draw—Home or draw81.3%83%
76
▼-1.7pp
Home or away—Home or away74%78%
76
▼-4pp
Draw or away—Draw or away44.7%39%
76
▲+5.7pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet74.7%79%
76
▼-4.3pp
Away draw no bet—Away draw no bet25.3%21%
76
▲+4.3pp
Both teams to score—Both teams to score53.8%54%
76
▼-0.2pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 66%model 55%▼-11pp
Xmarket 23%model 26%▲+3pp
2market 17%model 19%▲+2pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.