GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · — · 15:15
versus

Le Havre
Monaco

— · Referee j-pignard
Pre-match analysis
60%
Both teams to score
HA30
Draw28
MO42
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,70Raw implied probability27,0%Sum of the 1X2 book105,0%Operator margin removed−5,0 ptsDe-margined consensus26%Our model30.1%Measured gap+4.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal1 / 72
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 2.0 goals—28.8%39%−10.2
Away under 2.0 goals—71.2%61%+10.2
Away win—42.2%50%−7.8
Home or draw—57.8%50%+7.8
Away over 1.5 goals—47.2%55%−7.8
Away under 1.5 goals—52.8%45%+7.8
Home draw no bet—41.6%34%+7.6
Away draw no bet—58.4%66%−7.6
Away over 2.5 goals—21.4%29%−7.6
Away under 2.5 goals—78.6%71%+7.6
Away over 1.0 goals—69.8%77%−7.2
Away under 1.0 goals—30.2%23%+7.2

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Ligue 1 · 17:15
HAVHAV
MONMON
— · Pre-match analysis
60%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
13.603.70▲+0.1%
X3.803.90▲+0.1%
21.911.91•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 2.0 goals2Interesting80.6Away under 2.0 goals71.2%61%
54
▲+10.2pp
Home win—Home win30.1%26%
54
▲+4.1pp
Draw—Draw27.7%24%
54
▲+3.7pp
Away win—Away win42.2%50%
54
▼-7.8pp
Home or draw—Home or draw57.8%50%
54
▲+7.8pp
Home or away—Home or away72.3%76%
54
▼-3.7pp
Draw or away—Draw or away69.9%74%
54
▼-4.1pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet41.6%34%
54
▲+7.6pp
Away draw no bet—Away draw no bet58.4%66%
54
▼-7.6pp
Both teams to score—Both teams to score59.9%61%
54
▼-1.1pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 27%model 30%▲+3pp
Xmarket 26%model 28%▲+2pp
2market 52%model 42%▼-10pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
72
Eligible
72
With a price
72
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.