GRABBLESTATS
Watch🌍 Eredivisie · — · 14:45
versus

Telstar
Ajax

BUKO Stadion
Pre-match analysis
59%
Both teams to score
ST29
Draw29
AJ42
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,70Raw implied probability27,0%Sum of the 1X2 book105,3%Operator margin removed−5,3 ptsDe-margined consensus26%Our model29.5%Measured gap+3.5 pp
Markets carrying a signal4 / 48
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.5 goals—46%58%−12
Away under 1.5 goals—54%42%+12
Over 3.0 goals—40.7%50%−9.3
Under 3.0 goals—59.3%50%+9.3
Away over 2.5 goals—20.5%29%−8.5
Away under 2.5 goals—79.5%71%+8.5
Away win—41.8%50%−8.2
Home or draw—58.2%50%+8.2
Home draw no bet—41.4%34%+7.4
Away draw no bet—58.6%66%−7.4
Over 3.5 goals—31.6%39%−7.4
Under 3.5 goals—68.4%61%+7.4

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Eredivisie · 16:45
STOSTO
AJAAJA
BUKO Stadion · Pre-match analysis
59%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
13.703.70•0%
X3.853.86▲+0.01%
21.881.91▲+0.03%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal86Away under 1.5 goals54%42%
53
▲+12pp
Under 3.0 goals3Interesting77.9Under 3.0 goals59.3%50%
53
▲+9.3pp
Away under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting75.5Away under 2.5 goals79.5%71%
53
▲+8.5pp
Home or drawInteresting74.6Home or draw58.2%50%
53
▲+8.2pp
Home win—Home win29.5%26%
53
▲+3.5pp
Draw—Draw28.7%25%
53
▲+3.7pp
Away win—Away win41.8%50%
53
▼-8.2pp
Home or away—Home or away71.3%76%
53
▼-4.7pp
Draw or away—Draw or away70.5%74%
53
▼-3.5pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet41.4%34%
53
▲+7.4pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 27%model 29%▲+2pp
Xmarket 26%model 29%▲+3pp
2market 52%model 42%▼-10pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
48
Eligible
48
With a price
48
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.