GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🌍 Eredivisie · — · 16:45
versus

AZ Alkmaar
GO Ahead Eagles

AFAS Stadion
Pre-match analysis
61%
Both teams to score
AL52
Draw26
EA22
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,44Raw implied probability69,4%Sum of the 1X2 book106,9%Operator margin removed−6,9 ptsDe-margined consensus65%Our model51.8%Measured gap−13.2 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—40.5%56%−15.5
Home under 2.0 goals—59.5%44%+15.5
Home win—51.8%65%−13.2
Home over 3.0 goals—15.1%28%−12.9
Home under 3.0 goals—84.9%72%+12.9
Draw or away—48.2%36%+12.2
Home over 1.5 goals—56.6%68%−11.4
Home under 1.5 goals—43.4%32%+11.4
Home over 2.5 goals—29.6%41%−11.4
Home under 2.5 goals—70.4%59%+11.4
Home draw no bet—69.7%81%−11.3
Away draw no bet—30.3%19%+11.3

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Eredivisie · 18:45
ALKALK
EAGEAG
AFAS Stadion · Pre-match analysis
61%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.531.44▼-0.09%
X4.504.80▲+0.3%
25.426.00▲+0.58%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 2.0 goals2High Signal95Home under 2.0 goals59.5%44%
70
▲+15.5pp
Home under 3.0 goals3High Signal88.7Home under 3.0 goals84.9%72%
70
▲+12.9pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal86.6Draw or away48.2%36%
70
▲+12.2pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5Interesting84.2Home under 1.5 goals43.4%32%
70
▲+11.4pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting84.2Home under 2.5 goals70.4%59%
70
▲+11.4pp
Away draw no betInteresting83.9Away draw no bet30.3%19%
70
▲+11.3pp
Home under 3.5 goals3.5Interesting78.5Home under 3.5 goals87.5%78%
70
▲+9.5pp
Under 4.0 goals4Interesting75.2Under 4.0 goals75.4%67%
70
▲+8.4pp
Home win—Home win51.8%65%
70
▼-13.2pp
Draw—Draw25.7%19%
70
▲+6.7pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 69%model 52%▼-17pp
Xmarket 21%model 26%▲+5pp
2market 17%model 22%▲+5pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
62
Eligible
62
With a price
62
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.