GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Eredivisie · — · 14:30
versus

Excelsior
Sparta Rotterdam

Stadion Woudestein
Pre-match analysis
57%
Both teams to score
EX52
Draw27
SP21
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,41Raw implied probability41,5%Sum of the 1X2 book106,0%Operator margin removed−6,0 ptsDe-margined consensus39%Our model51.6%Measured gap+12.6 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 70
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—46.4%67%−20.6
Away under 1.0 goals—53.6%33%+20.6
Home draw no bet—70.8%53%+17.8
Away draw no bet—29.4%47%−17.6
Away over 1.5 goals—29.4%46%−16.6
Away under 1.5 goals—70.6%54%+16.6
Away over 2.0 goals—12%27%−15
Away under 2.0 goals—88%73%+15
Away win—21.4%35%−13.6
Home or draw—78.6%65%+13.6
Home win—51.6%39%+12.6
Draw or away—48.4%60%−11.6

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Eredivisie · 16:30
EXCEXC
SPASPA
Stadion Woudestein · Pre-match analysis
57%
Both teams to score

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.082.41▲+0.33%
X3.683.69▲+0.01%
23.232.67▼-0.56%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away under 1.0 goals53.6%33%
71
▲+20.6pp
Home draw no betHigh Signal95Home draw no bet70.8%53%
71
▲+17.8pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Away under 1.5 goals70.6%54%
71
▲+16.6pp
Away under 2.0 goals2High Signal95Away under 2.0 goals88%73%
71
▲+15pp
Home or drawHigh Signal90.8Home or draw78.6%65%
71
▲+13.6pp
Home winHigh Signal87.8Home win51.6%39%
71
▲+12.6pp
Away under 0.5 goals0.5Interesting82.7Away under 0.5 goals33.9%23%
71
▲+10.9pp
Away under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting81.2Away under 2.5 goals90.4%80%
71
▲+10.4pp
Draw—Draw27.1%26%
71
▲+1.1pp
Away win—Away win21.4%35%
71
▼-13.6pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 41%model 52%▲+11pp
Xmarket 27%model 27%•0pp
2market 37%model 21%▼-16pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
70
Eligible
70
With a price
70
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.