GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🌍 Eredivisie · — · 12:30
versus

PSV Eindhoven
Groningen

Philips Stadion · Referee a-lindhout
Pre-match analysis
77%
Over 2.5 goals
PS76
Draw15
GR9
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,33Raw implied probability75,2%Sum of the 1X2 book106,7%Operator margin removed−6,7 ptsDe-margined consensus70%Our model76.4%Measured gap+6.4 pp
Markets carrying a signal3 / 78
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—74.6%65%+9.6
Home under 2.0 goals—25.4%35%−9.6
Home over 1.0 goals—94.2%86%+8.2
Home under 1.0 goals—5.8%14%−8.2
Home over 2.5 goals—58%50%+8
Home under 2.5 goals—42%50%−8
Home over 3.0 goals—45.9%38%+7.9
Home under 3.0 goals—54.1%62%−7.9
Home over 1.5 goals—80.3%73%+7.3
Home under 1.5 goals—19.7%27%−7.3
Over 3.0 goals—71.2%64%+7.2
Under 3.0 goals—28.9%36%−7.1

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Eredivisie · 14:30
PSVPSV
GROGRO
Philips Stadion · Pre-match analysis
77%
Over 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.341.33▼-0.01%
X5.305.50▲+0.2%
27.207.50▲+0.3%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home over 2.0 goals2Interesting78.8Home over 2.0 goals74.6%65%
95
▲+9.6pp
Home over 1.0 goals1Interesting74.6Home over 1.0 goals94.2%86%
95
▲+8.2pp
Home over 2.5 goals2.5Interesting74Home over 2.5 goals58%50%
95
▲+8pp
Home win—Home win76.4%70%
95
▲+6.4pp
Draw—Draw14.9%17%
95
▼-2.1pp
Away win—Away win8.7%12%
95
▼-3.3pp
Home or draw—Home or draw91.3%87%
95
▲+4.3pp
Home or away—Home or away85.1%82%
95
▲+3.1pp
Draw or away—Draw or away23.6%30%
95
▼-6.4pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet89.8%84%
95
▲+5.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 75%model 76%▲+1pp
Xmarket 18%model 15%▼-3pp
2market 13%model 9%▼-4pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
78
Eligible
78
With a price
78
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.