GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Eredivisie · — · 16:45
versus

Sparta Rotterdam
Utrecht

Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel · Referee d-higler
3 – 3
Full time
55%
Both teams to score
SP25
Draw29
UT46
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,55Raw implied probability39,2%Sum of the 1X2 book106,9%Operator margin removed−6,9 ptsDe-margined consensus37%Our model24.9%Measured gap−12.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 68
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—47.8%64%−16.2
Home under 1.0 goals—52.2%36%+16.2
Home draw no bet—35.1%50%−14.9
Away draw no bet—64.7%50%+14.7
Home over 1.5 goals—30.3%43%−12.7
Home under 1.5 goals—69.7%57%+12.7
Home over 2.0 goals—12.7%25%−12.3
Home under 2.0 goals—87.3%75%+12.3
Home win—24.9%37%−12.1
Draw or away—75.1%64%+11.1
Away win—45.9%36%+9.9
Home or draw—54.1%64%−9.9

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Eredivisie · 18:45
SPASPA
UTRUTR
Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel
3 – 3
Full time

Final result

i
Confirmed✓55%Both teams to score · announced before kick-off
25%
Win SPA
29%
Draw
what happened
46%
Win UTR
25%at opening→25%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.592.55▼-0.04%
X3.463.42▼-0.04%
22.572.60▲+0.03%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals52.2%36%
61
▲+16.2pp
Away draw no betHigh Signal94.1Away draw no bet64.7%50%
61
▲+14.7pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal88.1Home under 1.5 goals69.7%57%
61
▲+12.7pp
Home under 2.0 goals2High Signal86.9Home under 2.0 goals87.3%75%
61
▲+12.3pp
Draw or awayInteresting83.3Draw or away75.1%64%
61
▲+11.1pp
Away winInteresting79.7Away win45.9%36%
61
▲+9.9pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting76.7Home under 2.5 goals89.9%81%
61
▲+8.9pp
Home under 0.5 goals0.5Interesting74.3Home under 0.5 goals33.1%25%
61
▲+8.1pp
Home win—Home win24.9%37%
61
▼-12.1pp
Draw—Draw29.1%27%
61
▲+2.1pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 39%model 25%▼-14pp
Xmarket 29%model 29%•0pp
2market 38%model 46%▲+8pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
68
Eligible
68
With a price
68
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.