High Signal🌍 Eredivisie · — · 18:00
versus
NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior
Goffertstadion
Pre-match analysis
69%
Over 2.5 goals
NI64
Draw21
EX15
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,44Raw implied probability69,4%Sum of the 1X2 book107,2%Operator margin removed−7,2 ptsDe-margined consensus65%Our model63.6%Measured gap−1.4 pp
Markets carrying a signal1 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away under 1.0 goals—49%58%−9
Away over 1.0 goals—50.9%42%+8.9
Over 2.0 goals—85.8%79%+6.8
Under 2.0 goals—14.2%21%−6.8
Over 1.5 goals—88.5%83%+5.5
Under 1.5 goals—11.5%17%−5.5
Under 3.0 goals—39%44%−5
Both teams to score—63.9%59%+4.9
Both teams to score: no—36.1%41%−4.9
Over 3.0 goals—60.9%56%+4.9
Over 2.5 goals—69.3%65%+4.3
Under 2.5 goals—30.7%35%−4.3
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
