GRABBLESTATS
High Signal🌍 Eredivisie · · 18:00
versus

NEC Nijmegen
Excelsior

Goffertstadion
Pre-match analysis
69%
Over 2.5 goals
NI64
Draw21
EX15
Why
NEC Nijmegen's attack sits at the 88th percentile of the league
NEC Nijmegen scores 2.3 goals per game at home
Excelsior concedes 1.9 goals per game away
NEC Nijmegen has won 5 of the last 8 meetings
What could fool us
Excelsior has won 4 of its last 6
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices NEC Nijmegen at 64%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

NIJNIJ
EXCEXC
Goffertstadion · Pre-match analysis
69%
Over 2.5 goals
64%
NIJ
21%
Draw
15%
EXC
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • NEC Nijmegen's attack sits at the 88th percentile of the league
  • NEC Nijmegen scores 2.3 goals per game at home
  • Excelsior concedes 1.9 goals per game away
  • NEC Nijmegen has won 5 of the last 8 meetings

What could mislead us

  • Excelsior has won 4 of its last 6
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

Interesting
Away over 1.0 goals1Strength 76.7/100
Away over 1.0 goals
Model
50.9%
Market
42%
Divergence
+8.9

Why this level

  • The model prices this at 50.9%, the market at 42%.

What holds it back

  • Model not yet calibrated on this league: the gap may overstate the edge.

Context snapshot

Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

iRound 19
#TeamPGDFormPts

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices NEC Nijmegen at 64%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions