GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Eredivisie · — · 14:30
versus

Fortuna Sittard
AZ Alkmaar

Fortuna Sittard Stadion · Referee s-gozubuyuk
0 – 2
Full time
62%
Both teams to score
SI29
Draw27
AL44
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 14,74Raw implied probability21,1%Sum of the 1X2 book106,4%Operator margin removed−6,4 ptsDe-margined consensus20%Our model28.9%Measured gap+8.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 70
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 2.0 goals—32.6%49%−16.4
Away under 2.0 goals—67.3%51%+16.3
Home or draw—56.3%41%+15.3
Away win—43.7%58%−14.3
Away draw no bet—60.1%74%−13.9
Home draw no bet—39.8%26%+13.8
Away over 2.5 goals—24%37%−13
Away under 2.5 goals—76%63%+13
Away over 1.5 goals—50.4%63%−12.6
Away under 1.5 goals—49.6%37%+12.6
Away over 3.0 goals—10.8%22%−11.2
Away under 3.0 goals—89.2%78%+11.2

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Eredivisie · 16:30
SITSIT
ALKALK
Fortuna Sittard Stadion
0 – 2
Full time

Final result

i
Refuted✕62%Both teams to score · announced before kick-off
29%
Win SIT
27%
Draw
44%
Win ALK
what happened
29%at opening→29%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
14.784.74▼-0.04%
X4.304.24▼-0.06%
21.601.62▲+0.02%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 2.0 goals2High Signal95Away under 2.0 goals67.3%51%
57
▲+16.3pp
Home or drawHigh Signal95Home or draw56.3%41%
57
▲+15.3pp
Home draw no betHigh Signal91.4Home draw no bet39.8%26%
57
▲+13.8pp
Away under 2.5 goals2.5High Signal89Away under 2.5 goals76%63%
57
▲+13pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal87.8Away under 1.5 goals49.6%37%
57
▲+12.6pp
Away under 3.0 goals3Interesting83.6Away under 3.0 goals89.2%78%
57
▲+11.2pp
Away under 3.5 goals3.5Interesting79.4Away under 3.5 goals90.8%81%
57
▲+9.8pp
Home winInteresting76.7Home win28.9%20%
57
▲+8.9pp
Draw—Draw27.3%22%
57
▲+5.3pp
Away win—Away win43.7%58%
57
▼-14.3pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 21%model 29%▲+8pp
Xmarket 24%model 27%▲+3pp
2market 62%model 44%▼-18pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
70
Eligible
70
With a price
70
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.