GRABBLESTATS
No signal🌍 Eredivisie · — · 14:30
versus

Willem II
NEC Nijmegen

Koning Willem II Stadion
1 – 4
Full time
61%
Over 2.5 goals
WI17
Draw24
NI59
Head to head

The head-to-head record is not assembled for this fixture. Past meetings are ingested competition by competition and this one is not covered yet — an empty record would read as two clubs that never met, which is a different statement.

How the analysis moved
21/08 05h17%—
Our past analyses in this competition

No analysis has been resolved in this competition yet.

Every resolved analysis stays on display with the probability it carried, confirmed or refuted.

Competition standings
2AFC Ajax7241+19
3Feyenoord7138+12
Eredivisie · 16:30
WILWIL
NIJNIJ
Koning Willem II Stadion
1 – 4
Full time

Final result

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Confirmed✓61%Over 2.5 goals · announced before kick-off
17%
Win WIL
24%
Draw
59%
Win NIJ
what happened
17%at opening→17%at kick-off±0 pp

Final match statistics are not published for this fixture: only live fixtures carry them today. The analysis above stands on the probability that was announced, and on the result.

Time Machine

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What changed?

()
View full timeline

Evolution over time

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WI winDrawNI win

Snapshot ledger

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SnapshotPrediction IDModel versionData qualityConfidence
21/08 05hprd_20260815_af-1552127_210805hv1.9.354%70%

What would have to change

i25.5 pt span
Red card59 → 37.9-21.1
High tempo59 → 63.4+4.4
Low tempo59 → 55.5-3.5
Opponent scores first59 → 56.2-2.8
Key substitution59 → 58-1
Early goal59 → 590

A single plausible change reverses the lean. The headline probability is more fragile than its number suggests.

Scenario library

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Notes

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