GRABBLESTATS
Watch🇲🇽 Liga MX · — · 23:00
versus

CF Pachuca
Guadalajara Chivas

Estadio Miguel Hidalgo
Pre-match analysis
56%
Under 2.5 goals
CF41
Draw29
GU30
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,67Raw implied probability37,5%Sum of the 1X2 book108,2%Operator margin removed−8,2 ptsDe-margined consensus35%Our model40.8%Measured gap+5.8 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 62
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away over 1.0 goals—47.6%64%−16.4
Away under 1.0 goals—52.4%36%+16.4
Away over 1.5 goals—30.2%43%−12.8
Away under 1.5 goals—69.8%57%+12.8
Away over 2.0 goals—12.5%24%−11.5
Away under 2.0 goals—87.5%76%+11.5
Over 3.0 goals—28.7%40%−11.3
Under 3.0 goals—71.1%60%+11.1
Over 3.5 goals—22.7%33%−10.3
Under 3.5 goals—77.3%67%+10.3
Away draw no bet—42.5%52%−9.5
Home draw no bet—57.4%48%+9.4

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

liga-mx · 01:00
CF CF
GUAGUA
Estadio Miguel Hidalgo · Pre-match analysis
56%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.672.67•0%
X3.383.38•0%
22.432.43•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away under 1.0 goals52.4%36%
52
▲+16.4pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal88.4Away under 1.5 goals69.8%57%
52
▲+12.8pp
Away under 2.0 goals2Interesting84.5Away under 2.0 goals87.5%76%
52
▲+11.5pp
Under 3.0 goals3Interesting83.3Under 3.0 goals71.1%60%
52
▲+11.1pp
Under 3.5 goals3.5Interesting80.9Under 3.5 goals77.3%67%
52
▲+10.3pp
Home draw no betInteresting78.2Home draw no bet57.4%48%
52
▲+9.4pp
Under 2.0 goals2Interesting77.6Under 2.0 goals40.2%31%
52
▲+9.2pp
Under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting77.6Under 2.5 goals56.2%47%
52
▲+9.2pp
Home win—Home win40.8%35%
52
▲+5.8pp
Draw—Draw28.9%27%
52
▲+1.9pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 37%model 41%▲+4pp
Xmarket 30%model 29%▼-1pp
2market 41%model 30%▼-11pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
62
Eligible
62
With a price
62
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.