Interesting🇲🇽 Liga MX · — · 23:00
versus
Atlas
Club Queretaro
Estadio Jalisco
Pre-match analysis
65%
Under 2.5 goals
AT45
Draw31
CL24
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,01Raw implied probability49,8%Sum of the 1X2 book106,4%Operator margin removed−6,4 ptsDe-margined consensus47%Our model44.8%Measured gap−2.2 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 64
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 3.0 goals—20.4%37%−16.6
Under 3.0 goals—79.6%63%+16.6
Over 2.0 goals—49.2%65%−15.8
Under 2.0 goals—50.8%35%+15.8
Away over 1.0 goals—33.3%49%−15.7
Away under 1.0 goals—66.7%51%+15.7
Over 2.5 goals—35.5%50%−14.5
Under 2.5 goals—64.5%50%+14.5
Over 3.5 goals—16.5%30%−13.5
Under 3.5 goals—83.5%70%+13.5
Both teams to score—42.1%55%−12.9
Both teams to score: no—57.9%45%+12.9
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
