GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇲🇽 Liga MX · · 23:07
versus

Guadalajara Chivas
Club Tijuana

Estadio Akron · Referee m-chavez
Pre-match analysis
57%
Victoire Guadalajara Chivas
GU57
Draw24
CL19
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,47Raw implied probability68,0%Sum of the 1X2 book107,3%Operator margin removed−7,3 ptsDe-margined consensus63%Our model56.9%Measured gap−6.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal1 / 66
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals37.4%46%−8.6
Home under 2.0 goals62.4%54%+8.4
Home over 2.5 goals27.4%35%−7.6
Home under 2.5 goals72.6%65%+7.6
Home over 3.5 goals11.2%18%−6.8
Home under 3.5 goals88.8%82%+6.8
Home over 1.5 goals54.3%61%−6.7
Home under 1.5 goals45.7%39%+6.7
Home under 3.0 goals86.7%80%+6.7
Home over 3.0 goals13.4%20%−6.6
Home win56.9%63%−6.1
Draw or away43.1%37%+6.1

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

GUAGUA
CLUCLU
Estadio Akron · Pre-match analysis
57%
Victoire GU

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.461.47+0.01%
X4.354.37+0.02%
26.056.12+0.07%

Model outputs by market

i
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 2.0 goals2Interesting75.2Home under 2.0 goals62.4%54%
78
+8.4pp
Home winHome win56.9%63%
78
-6.1pp
DrawDraw24.2%21%
78
+3.2pp
Away winAway win18.9%15%
78
+3.9pp
Home or drawHome or draw81.1%84%
78
-2.9pp
Home or awayHome or away75.8%79%
78
-3.2pp
Draw or awayDraw or away43.1%37%
78
+6.1pp
Home draw no betHome draw no bet75.1%80%
78
-4.9pp
Away draw no betAway draw no bet24.9%20%
78
+4.9pp
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score52.4%52%
78
+0.4pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 68%model 57%-11pp
Xmarket 23%model 24%+1pp
2market 16%model 19%+3pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
66
Eligible
66
With a price
66
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.