GRABBLESTATS
Watch🇲🇽 Liga MX · · 01:00
versus

Puebla
Santos Laguna

· Referee d-quintero
11
21:00
56%
Both teams to score
PU42
Draw27
SA31
Why
Santos Laguna's defence sits at the 3th percentile — among the weakest
Puebla takes 0.82 points per game at home, the opponent 0.26 away
Santos Laguna has lost 5 of its last 6
Santos Laguna concedes 2.7 goals per game away
What could fool us
Puebla's defence sits at the 14th percentile — among the weakest
Santos Laguna takes 1.26 points per game at home against 0.26 away — two different sides depending on the ground
The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident
Assisted summary

The model prices Puebla at 42%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

No limit is declared alongside this summary. Limits are published with the factors, and neither is measured on this fixture yet.

News impactmeasured effect on the probability

No press item is attached to this fixture. Items appear once a headline matches an entity of the registry — and their measured effect stays at zero until an extractor turns one into a fact.

Data readinesswhat feeds the analysis, and what is missing

Data readiness is not published for this fixture. The family scores — squad, form, market, context — come from an engine that has not yet run over the ingested fixtures.

Key signals

No signal is measured for this fixture. A signal is a weighted factor carrying its contribution in points; until the ingested history supports one, the analysis stands on the probability alone.

PUEPUE
SANSAN
11
21:00

Live intelligence

i21'
Modèle en direct : issue recalculée depuis le score et la minute (Poisson restant sur les intensités d'avant-match). L'intensité est comptée sur les événements horodatés, par tranche de cinq minutes.
Live win probabilityat 1–1, 21'
40%
PU win
30%
Draw
30%
SA win
-2ppvs pre-kick-off model
MomentumRolling 5-minute pressure index
KO21'
Expected goals
0.000.00
Scoreline broadly in line with expected goals.
xG trajectory
Observed statistics
Key moments
  • 9'Normal Goal PUEE. MustrePUE
  • 4'Normal Goal SANE. BullaudeSAN
Model changes
  • -16pp4' — SAN goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted SAN's control of the match.
  • +14pp9' — PUE goalScore state changed. The remaining-time model re-weighted PUE's control of the match.
  • 0ppxG accumulationChance quality created since kick-off, independent of the scoreline.

Live estimates depend on the event feed. When an event is delayed or missing, the model keeps its previous state rather than inventing one.

42%
PUE
27%
Draw
31%
SAN
▲ +0 pp since opening · data quality 60

Why

  • Santos Laguna's defence sits at the 3th percentile — among the weakest
  • Puebla takes 0.82 points per game at home, the opponent 0.26 away
  • Santos Laguna has lost 5 of its last 6
  • Santos Laguna concedes 2.7 goals per game away

What could mislead us

  • Puebla's defence sits at the 14th percentile — among the weakest
  • Santos Laguna takes 1.26 points per game at home against 0.26 away — two different sides depending on the ground
  • The model is not calibrated on this league yet: the stated probability may be overconfident

Key signals

i

Leading market

No market carries a signal on this fixture.

That is a valid and frequent result. The full analysis stays available below.

Context snapshot

Referee
d-quintero
Pitch
Rest advantage
Fatigue —
Travel

Standings

No table is published for this competition — GrabbleStats tracks only part of it.

AI Reasoning

iExplanation layer

The model prices Puebla at 42%. The factors below are measured or declared — never narrated.

Limits & assumptions