GRABBLESTATS
Watch🇮🇹 Serie A · — · 16:30
versus

Napoli
Como

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Pre-match analysis
59%
Under 2.5 goals
NA34
Draw28
CO38
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,13Raw implied probability46,9%Sum of the 1X2 book103,6%Operator margin removed−3,6 ptsDe-margined consensus45%Our model33.9%Measured gap−11.1 pp
Markets carrying a signal6 / 56
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—48.8%65%−16.2
Home under 1.0 goals—51%35%+16
Away over 1.0 goals—53.2%40%+13.2
Away under 1.0 goals—46.8%60%−13.2
Away win—37.9%25%+12.9
Home under 2.0 goals—86.9%74%+12.9
Home over 2.0 goals—13.2%26%−12.8
Home or draw—62.1%74%−11.9
Home draw no bet—47.2%59%−11.8
Away draw no bet—52.8%41%+11.8
Home win—33.9%45%−11.1
Draw or away—66.1%55%+11.1

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Serie A · 18:30
NAPNAP
COMCOM
Stadio Diego Armando Maradona · Pre-match analysis
59%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
12.202.13▼-0.07%
X3.253.27▲+0.02%
23.253.83▲+0.58%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals51%35%
50
▲+16pp
Away over 1.0 goals1High Signal89.6Away over 1.0 goals53.2%40%
50
▲+13.2pp
Away winHigh Signal88.7Away win37.9%25%
50
▲+12.9pp
Home under 2.0 goals2High Signal88.7Home under 2.0 goals86.9%74%
50
▲+12.9pp
Away draw no betInteresting85.4Away draw no bet52.8%41%
50
▲+11.8pp
Draw or awayInteresting83.3Draw or away66.1%55%
50
▲+11.1pp
Home win—Home win33.9%45%
50
▼-11.1pp
Draw—Draw28.2%30%
50
▼-1.8pp
Home or draw—Home or draw62.1%74%
50
▼-11.9pp
Home or away—Home or away71.8%71%
50
▲+0.8pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 47%model 34%▼-13pp
Xmarket 31%model 28%▼-3pp
2market 26%model 38%▲+12pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
56
Eligible
56
With a price
56
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.