GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇮🇹 Serie A · — · 18:45
versus

Lazio
Genoa

Stadio Olimpico
Pre-match analysis
62%
Under 2.5 goals
LA44
Draw29
GE27
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,84Raw implied probability54,3%Sum of the 1X2 book104,2%Operator margin removed−4,2 ptsDe-margined consensus52%Our model44%Measured gap−8 pp
Markets carrying a signal2 / 32
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Away draw no bet—38.4%28%+10.4
Home draw no bet—61.7%72%−10.3
Home win—44%52%−8
Draw or away—56%48%+8
Home over 1.5 goals—36.1%44%−7.9
Home under 1.5 goals—63.9%56%+7.9
Home or draw—72.6%80%−7.4
Away win—27.4%21%+6.4
Home over 2.5 goals—13.5%19%−5.5
Home under 2.5 goals—86.5%81%+5.5
Home over 0.5 goals—71.8%77%−5.2
Home under 0.5 goals—28.2%23%+5.2

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Serie A · 20:45
LAZLAZ
GENGEN
Stadio Olimpico · Pre-match analysis
62%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.901.84▼-0.06%
X3.403.52▲+0.12%
24.524.66▲+0.14%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Away draw no betInteresting81.2Away draw no bet38.4%28%
57
▲+10.4pp
Draw or awayInteresting74Draw or away56%48%
57
▲+8pp
Home win—Home win44%52%
57
▼-8pp
Draw—Draw28.7%27%
57
▲+1.7pp
Away win—Away win27.4%21%
57
▲+6.4pp
Home or draw—Home or draw72.6%80%
57
▼-7.4pp
Home or away—Home or away71.3%73%
57
▼-1.7pp
Home draw no bet—Home draw no bet61.7%72%
57
▼-10.3pp
Both teams to score—Both teams to score43.7%45%
57
▼-1.3pp
Both teams to score: no—Both teams to score: no56.3%55%
57
▲+1.3pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 54%model 44%▼-10pp
Xmarket 28%model 29%▲+1pp
2market 21%model 27%▲+6pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
32
Eligible
32
With a price
32
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.