Interesting🇮🇹 Serie A · — · 18:45
versus
Juventus
Parma
Allianz Stadium
Pre-match analysis
64%
Both teams to score: no
JU61
Draw25
PA14
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,31Raw implied probability76,3%Sum of the 1X2 book103,9%Operator margin removed−3,9 ptsDe-margined consensus73%Our model61.5%Measured gap−11.5 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 52
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Over 3.0 goals—22%47%−25
Under 3.0 goals—78%53%+25
Over 2.0 goals—50.9%75%−24.1
Under 2.0 goals—49.1%25%+24.1
Over 2.5 goals—37.2%60%−22.8
Under 2.5 goals—62.8%40%+22.8
Home over 2.0 goals—28.7%51%−22.3
Home under 2.0 goals—71.3%49%+22.3
Home over 1.5 goals—47%68%−21
Home under 1.5 goals—53%32%+21
Home over 2.5 goals—21.3%42%−20.7
Home under 2.5 goals—78.7%58%+20.7
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
