High Signal🇮🇹 Serie A · — · 16:30
versus
Venezia
Lecce
Stadio Pierluigi Penzo · Referee a-rapuano
Pre-match analysis
73%
Under 2.5 goals
VE36
Draw33
LE31
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,21Raw implied probability45,2%Sum of the 1X2 book105,3%Operator margin removed−5,3 ptsDe-margined consensus43%Our model36.1%Measured gap−6.9 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 58
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—38.7%60%−21.3
Home under 1.0 goals—61.1%40%+21.1
Over 2.0 goals—37%56%−19
Under 2.0 goals—63%44%+19
Over 3.0 goals—13%28%−15
Over 2.5 goals—27.1%42%−14.9
Under 2.5 goals—72.9%58%+14.9
Under 3.0 goals—86.9%72%+14.9
Home over 1.5 goals—24.5%39%−14.5
Home under 1.5 goals—75.5%61%+14.5
Over 1.5 goals—53.9%68%−14.1
Under 1.5 goals—46.1%32%+14.1
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
