High Signal🇮🇹 Serie A · — · 18:45
versus
Parma
Cagliari
Stadio Ennio Tardini · Referee d-perenzoni
0 – 1
Full time
68%
Under 2.5 goals
PA34
Draw31
CA35
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 12,48Raw implied probability40,3%Sum of the 1X2 book104,8%Operator margin removed−4,8 ptsDe-margined consensus39%Our model34.4%Measured gap−4.6 pp
Markets carrying a signal3 / 58
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home under 1.0 goals—58.4%47%+11.4
Home over 1.0 goals—41.8%53%−11.2
Home over 1.5 goals—26.4%35%−8.6
Home under 1.5 goals—73.6%65%+8.6
Under 3.0 goals—82.5%74%+8.5
Over 3.0 goals—17.6%26%−8.4
Over 2.0 goals—44.4%52%−7.6
Under 2.0 goals—55.6%48%+7.6
Home over 2.0 goals—9.8%17%−7.2
Home under 2.0 goals—90.2%83%+7.2
Both teams to score—40.1%47%−6.9
Both teams to score: no—59.9%53%+6.9
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
