No signal🇮🇹 Serie A · — · 16:30
versus
Inter
Monza
— · Referee l-marinelli
4 – 1
Full time
89%
Victoire Inter
IN89
Draw8
MO3
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,18Raw implied probability84,7%Sum of the 1X2 book104,5%Operator margin removed−4,5 ptsDe-margined consensus81%Our model89.3%Measured gap+8.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 70
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 3.0 goals—58.6%38%+20.6
Home under 3.0 goals—41.5%62%−20.5
Over 3.0 goals—71.8%53%+18.8
Under 3.0 goals—28.2%47%−18.8
Over 4.0 goals—47.8%29%+18.8
Under 4.0 goals—52.2%71%−18.8
Home over 2.5 goals—67.5%50%+17.5
Home under 2.5 goals—32.5%50%−17.5
Over 3.5 goals—58%41%+17
Under 3.5 goals—42%59%−17
Home over 3.5 goals—45.9%29%+16.9
Home under 3.5 goals—54.1%71%−16.9
A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.
