GRABBLESTATS
No signal🇮🇹 Serie A · — · 18:45
versus

Atalanta
Sassuolo

New Balance Arena · Referee v-crezzini
Pre-match analysis
57%
Victoire Atalanta
AT57
Draw24
SA19
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,53Raw implied probability65,4%Sum of the 1X2 book105,0%Operator margin removed−5,0 ptsDe-margined consensus62%Our model56.7%Measured gap−5.3 pp
Markets carrying a signal6 / 68
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 2.0 goals—33.9%46%−12.1
Home under 2.0 goals—66.1%54%+12.1
Over 3.0 goals—34.5%44%−9.5
Under 3.0 goals—65.5%56%+9.5
Home over 2.5 goals—24.9%34%−9.1
Home under 2.5 goals—75.1%66%+9.1
Home over 1.5 goals—51.4%60%−8.6
Home under 1.5 goals—48.6%40%+8.6
Home over 3.0 goals—11.4%20%−8.6
Home under 3.0 goals—88.6%80%+8.6
Over 4.0 goals—14.7%23%−8.3
Under 4.0 goals—85.2%77%+8.2

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

Serie A · 20:45
ATAATA
SASSAS
New Balance Arena · Pre-match analysis
57%
Victoire AT

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.531.53•0%
X4.254.35▲+0.1%
26.006.00•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 2.0 goals2High Signal86.3Home under 2.0 goals66.1%54%
78
▲+12.1pp
Under 3.0 goals3Interesting78.5Under 3.0 goals65.5%56%
78
▲+9.5pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting77.3Home under 2.5 goals75.1%66%
78
▲+9.1pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5Interesting75.8Home under 1.5 goals48.6%40%
78
▲+8.6pp
Home under 3.0 goals3Interesting75.8Home under 3.0 goals88.6%80%
78
▲+8.6pp
Under 4.0 goals4Interesting74.6Under 4.0 goals85.2%77%
78
▲+8.2pp
Home win—Home win56.7%62%
78
▼-5.3pp
Draw—Draw23.8%22%
78
▲+1.8pp
Away win—Away win19.5%16%
78
▲+3.5pp
Home or draw—Home or draw80.5%84%
78
▼-3.5pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 65%model 57%▼-8pp
Xmarket 23%model 24%▲+1pp
2market 17%model 19%▲+2pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
68
Eligible
68
With a price
68
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.