GRABBLESTATS
Watch🇨🇴 Primera A · — · 20:30
versus

Águilas Doradas
Millonarios

Estadio Cincuentenario
Pre-match analysis
57%
Under 2.5 goals
ÁG38
Draw29
MI33
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 13,78Raw implied probability26,5%Sum of the 1X2 book107,8%Operator margin removed−7,8 ptsDe-margined consensus25%Our model38.4%Measured gap+13.4 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 60
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home draw no bet—53.9%36%+17.9
Away draw no bet—46.2%64%−17.8
Away over 1.0 goals—49.4%65%−15.6
Away under 1.0 goals—50.6%35%+15.6
Home win—38.4%25%+13.4
Draw or away—61.6%75%−13.4
Away win—32.9%46%−13.1
Home or draw—67.1%54%+13.1
Away over 1.5 goals—31.4%44%−12.6
Away under 1.5 goals—68.6%56%+12.6
Away over 2.0 goals—13.5%26%−12.5
Away under 2.0 goals—86.5%74%+12.5

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

colombia-a · 22:30
ÁGUÁGU
MILMIL
Estadio Cincuentenario · Pre-match analysis
57%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
13.673.78▲+0.11%
X3.173.19▲+0.02%
22.022.00▼-0.02%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home draw no betHigh Signal95Home draw no bet53.9%36%
49
▲+17.9pp
Away under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Away under 1.0 goals50.6%35%
49
▲+15.6pp
Home winHigh Signal90.2Home win38.4%25%
49
▲+13.4pp
Home or drawHigh Signal89.3Home or draw67.1%54%
49
▲+13.1pp
Away under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal87.8Away under 1.5 goals68.6%56%
49
▲+12.6pp
Away under 2.0 goals2High Signal87.5Away under 2.0 goals86.5%74%
49
▲+12.5pp
Home over 1.0 goals1High Signal86.9Home over 1.0 goals55.3%43%
49
▲+12.3pp
Away under 2.5 goals2.5Interesting77.9Away under 2.5 goals89.3%80%
49
▲+9.3pp
Draw—Draw28.8%29%
49
▼-0.2pp
Away win—Away win32.9%46%
49
▼-13.1pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 26%model 38%▲+12pp
Xmarket 31%model 29%▼-2pp
2market 50%model 33%▼-17pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
60
Eligible
60
With a price
60
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.