GRABBLESTATS
Interesting🇨🇴 Primera A · — · 01:15
versus

Once Caldas
Alianza Valledupar

Estadio Palogrande
Pre-match analysis
65%
Under 2.5 goals
ON42
Draw31
AL27
From the displayed price to the probability
Odds · 11,57Raw implied probability63,7%Sum of the 1X2 book107,4%Operator margin removed−7,4 ptsDe-margined consensus59%Our model42.5%Measured gap−16.5 pp
Markets carrying a signal8 / 58
MarketModel leanModelMarketGap
Home over 1.0 goals—52.7%74%−21.3
Home under 1.0 goals—47.3%26%+21.3
Home over 2.0 goals—15.3%36%−20.7
Home under 2.0 goals—84.7%64%+20.7
Home over 1.5 goals—33.6%52%−18.4
Home under 1.5 goals—66.4%48%+18.4
Home draw no bet—61.2%79%−17.8
Away draw no bet—38.6%21%+17.6
Home win—42.5%59%−16.5
Draw or away—57.5%41%+16.5
Home over 2.5 goals—12%26%−14
Home under 2.5 goals—88%74%+14

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it, never because the matching statistic exists. A divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity — and a market we cannot price shows a dash rather than being hidden.

colombia-a · 03:15
ONCONC
ALIALI
Estadio Palogrande · Pre-match analysis
65%
Under 2.5 goals

Odds & Market

Live
MarketOpeningCurrentMovement
11.571.57•0%
X3.643.64•0%
26.166.16•0%
Market analysis

Model outputs by market

i
Market Explorer
MarketSignalModel leanModelMarketConfidenceDivergence
Home under 1.0 goals1High Signal95Home under 1.0 goals47.3%26%
55
▲+21.3pp
Home under 2.0 goals2High Signal95Home under 2.0 goals84.7%64%
55
▲+20.7pp
Home under 1.5 goals1.5High Signal95Home under 1.5 goals66.4%48%
55
▲+18.4pp
Away draw no betHigh Signal95Away draw no bet38.6%21%
55
▲+17.6pp
Draw or awayHigh Signal95Draw or away57.5%41%
55
▲+16.5pp
Home under 2.5 goals2.5High Signal92Home under 2.5 goals88%74%
55
▲+14pp
Under 3.0 goals3High Signal90.2Under 3.0 goals80.4%67%
55
▲+13.4pp
Home under 3.0 goals3High Signal89.9Home under 3.0 goals96.3%83%
55
▲+13.3pp
Home win—Home win42.5%59%
55
▼-16.5pp
Draw—Draw30.6%26%
55
▲+4.6pp

Divergence is a measured gap between the model and the market, not a guaranteed opportunity. When no price is published, the gap is unknown and is never estimated.

Model / market divergence

i
1market 64%model 42%▼-22pp
Xmarket 27%model 31%▲+4pp
2market 16%model 27%▲+11pp

Market coverage for this fixture

i
Markets classified
58
Eligible
58
With a price
58
Data quality
60%

A market is listed because a provider offers it and a calibrated model can price it — never because the corresponding statistic exists. Divergence is a measured gap, not a guaranteed opportunity.